My model follows the race and, every lap, works out each car's best plan from where it is: when to stop, for which tyres, and where it should finish.
The table as the race runs, from lap 3. Goes live before the start.
A wet start, slicks from lap 16, rain at the end. Lap by lap.
A one-stop race, a safety car on lap 44, then a red flag. Lap by lap.